Actually the book looks like work in progress, and he's adding more COVID stuff. Not a good reference. Where does he discuss fractal pattern to lockdown? I certainly didn't spot it in his tweets, and the actual lockdown is anything but fractal.
Post by twetch#21877
I tried a quick glance through his twitter and couldn't find it, but if you've read any of his finished writings about minority rule it's the exact same. Each person is a node in a network, and if they are sick and about they're marked bad, else good.
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- Block
- 633 777
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- 2020-05-06T19:45:19Z
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- 16SgJCRH7fB5ny6wCHabmiGaa6wcbve6WS
- App
- twetch
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- post
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- text/plain
- Name in tx
- twetch#21877
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Each edge has a number attached to it, marking the chance these two people come into contact. The key to preventing to spread is simply to find the bad nodes, and delete the edges connected to them.
The renormalization is that on can take every town to be a single node, and mark it sick if one person sick, else healthy, make edges correspond to the chance of a traveler coming into contact. Same as before, only delete edges connected to bad nodes.
And again, making each node a county, or country. Same pattern always. In Canada travel to NWT was shut off after one case weeks ago, still only at 5, and will stay under control. Maybe it was Bar-Yam who discussed this, or i just read between the lines.
These points are well taken. I would still like to see some evidence that Taleb thought of all this beforehand. I mean he was publishing papers within days of the outbreak. I think also he didn't realize how hard is it to get back to normal.