I tried a quick glance through his twitter and couldn't find it, but if you've read any of his finished writings about minority rule it's the exact same. Each person is a node in a network, and if they are sick and about they're marked bad, else good.
Post by twetch#21877
Each edge has a number attached to it, marking the chance these two people come into contact. The key to preventing to spread is simply to find the bad nodes, and delete the edges connected to them.
What the chain says
- Block
- 633 777
- Time
- 2020-05-06T19:45:19Z
- Signer
- 16SgJCRH7fB5ny6wCHabmiGaa6wcbve6WS
- App
- twetch
- Type
- post
- Content type
- text/plain
- Name in tx
- twetch#21877
Fields the transaction did not carry are omitted. Open the payload to see the bytes as stored.
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16SgJCRH7fB5ny6wCHabmiGaa6wcbve6WS VerifiedReplies (5)
The renormalization is that on can take every town to be a single node, and mark it sick if one person sick, else healthy, make edges correspond to the chance of a traveler coming into contact. Same as before, only delete edges connected to bad nodes.
And again, making each node a county, or country. Same pattern always. In Canada travel to NWT was shut off after one case weeks ago, still only at 5, and will stay under control. Maybe it was Bar-Yam who discussed this, or i just read between the lines.
These points are well taken. I would still like to see some evidence that Taleb thought of all this beforehand. I mean he was publishing papers within days of the outbreak. I think also he didn't realize how hard is it to get back to normal.
Fair enough, maybe I filled in some gaps. At any rate, I'm pretty sure NNT and YBY really wanted to close down borders and initiate lockdown VERY early, never let it get past dozens or hundreds of cases which can be totally contact traced and contained.