The renormalization is that on can take every town to be a single node, and mark it sick if one person sick, else healthy, make edges correspond to the chance of a traveler coming into contact. Same as before, only delete edges connected to bad nodes.
Post by twetch#21877
And again, making each node a county, or country. Same pattern always. In Canada travel to NWT was shut off after one case weeks ago, still only at 5, and will stay under control. Maybe it was Bar-Yam who discussed this, or i just read between the lines.
What the chain says
- Block
- 633 777
- Time
- 2020-05-06T19:45:19Z
- Signer
- 16SgJCRH7fB5ny6wCHabmiGaa6wcbve6WS
- App
- twetch
- Type
- post
- Content type
- text/plain
- Name in tx
- twetch#21877
Fields the transaction did not carry are omitted. Open the payload to see the bytes as stored.
Signed by
16SgJCRH7fB5ny6wCHabmiGaa6wcbve6WS VerifiedReplies (3)
These points are well taken. I would still like to see some evidence that Taleb thought of all this beforehand. I mean he was publishing papers within days of the outbreak. I think also he didn't realize how hard is it to get back to normal.
Fair enough, maybe I filled in some gaps. At any rate, I'm pretty sure NNT and YBY really wanted to close down borders and initiate lockdown VERY early, never let it get past dozens or hundreds of cases which can be totally contact traced and contained.
The hope was really to get countries down to ZERO cases, so that reopening is just a matter of keeping borders closed so new cases can't get in. Now were basically screwed. Might as well reopen and just wear masks I guess. Sigh...