So last night I'm like, “how do I exact righteous nerd vengeance on these impolite rubes?”
And then I said to myself, “Self, let's follow the money like the detectives in the movies!”
2/
Post by twetch#7124
First, we develop a hypothesis: what we would expect to see if something nefarious was going on, and then we’ll look for it?
Perhaps not a “Karl Popper approved” method of inquiry, but then again what is? (properly using a brain is quite hard…)
3/
What the chain says
- Block
- 668 976
- Time
- 2021-01-07T17:52:57Z
- Signer
- 19CZX2Au1CCbFug3HjjtevywLSRXCm1AZf
- App
- twetch
- Type
- post
- Content type
- text/plain
- Name in tx
- twetch#7124
Fields the transaction did not carry are omitted. Open the payload to see the bytes as stored.
Signed by
19CZX2Au1CCbFug3HjjtevywLSRXCm1AZf VerifiedReplies (6)
And I concluded that what I'd expect to see is capital flight from USDT-only exchanges to USD-enabled exchanges.
This may be confusing to some, so let's unpack what I mean first.
4/
Some have actual Dollars and some only have Tethers. A few have both. If you want dollars, you have to get them from the former.
Curiously, the tether-only ones are where you get insane leverage, but lets save that for the next time RT-Max stops by.
5/
So if some cynical, secretly-fiat-believing actor were to do something of dubious intent, wed expect to see capital migration toward real dollar exchanges.
What would that look like? Well, I wasn't sure until I dug in.
And then I was like “holy shit.”
6/
This takes some unpacking so lets start with the easy stuff.
Coinbase is a real dollar exchange, and when we look at the BTCUSD price delta between it and Bitfinex, we note that bitcoin is more valuable on Coinbase-a trend that increases during pumps.
7/