First, we develop a hypothesis: what we would expect to see if something nefarious was going on, and then we’ll look for it?
Perhaps not a “Karl Popper approved” method of inquiry, but then again what is? (properly using a brain is quite hard…)
3/
Post by twetch#7124
And I concluded that what I'd expect to see is capital flight from USDT-only exchanges to USD-enabled exchanges.
This may be confusing to some, so let's unpack what I mean first.
4/
What the chain says
- Block
- 668 976
- Time
- 2021-01-07T17:52:57Z
- Signer
- 19CZX2Au1CCbFug3HjjtevywLSRXCm1AZf
- App
- twetch
- Type
- post
- Content type
- text/plain
- Name in tx
- twetch#7124
Fields the transaction did not carry are omitted. Open the payload to see the bytes as stored.
Signed by
19CZX2Au1CCbFug3HjjtevywLSRXCm1AZf VerifiedReplies (5)
Some have actual Dollars and some only have Tethers. A few have both. If you want dollars, you have to get them from the former.
Curiously, the tether-only ones are where you get insane leverage, but lets save that for the next time RT-Max stops by.
5/
So if some cynical, secretly-fiat-believing actor were to do something of dubious intent, wed expect to see capital migration toward real dollar exchanges.
What would that look like? Well, I wasn't sure until I dug in.
And then I was like “holy shit.”
6/
This takes some unpacking so lets start with the easy stuff.
Coinbase is a real dollar exchange, and when we look at the BTCUSD price delta between it and Bitfinex, we note that bitcoin is more valuable on Coinbase-a trend that increases during pumps.
7/
ya kno tha NSA has all of it recorded...