This is the trillion-dollar question. Nobody knows for sure, but we can narrow it down based on the law and the mountain of debt.
The timeline is already in the law:
NOW - Nov 2026: The Build-Up Phase. The actual GENIUS rules don't come into effect until November 2026. This means: Issuers are still allowed to grow and only have to demonstrate genuine 1:1 reserves in T-Bills monthly starting at the end of 2026, and under federal supervision if they exceed $10 billion.
Current market value: $270 billion. Bessent/Trump's goal: $2 trillion+ in the next 2-3 years.
No crash will happen during this phase. On the contrary: Everyone will buy T-Bills because they have to. This will briefly push interest rates down and finance US debt. This is the honeymoon phase.
2027-2028: The Critical Window - This is where the danger is greatest.
Why?
Debt Wall: The US will have to refinance approximately $8-9 trillion of old debt in 2027-2028, which was issued at 1-2% interest. Now it's at 4.5-5%. This will be brutally expensive.
Stablecoin Saturation: When we have $1.5-2 trillion in stablecoins, issuers will be holding more T-Bills than China and Japan combined. Then a 10% run would be enough to require the immediate sale of $150-200 billion in T-Bills. That's three times the 2022 UK gilt crisis.
Liquidity Runs Out: The Fed's quantitative tightening is still in progress, and banks have fewer reserves. One external shock (recession, war, Trump's 2028 election) is all it takes.
Historically, such a run always occurs 12-24 months AFTER major regulation, when everyone thinks it's safe. 2008 was 8 years after the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed. Terra/Luna peaked one year after the last bull run in 2022.
My estimated window for Wave 1 (run): Q3 2027 to Q2 2028.
Immediately afterward—within two weeks of the run: UBI/airdrop.
This won't take years. Like 2020: Crash on March 15th, CARES Act with stimulus checks signed on March 27th.
After a stablecoin run, Congress won't spend six months debating. It will happen immediately:
Days 1-3: Fed bailout facility. Days 7-14: "American Digital Recovery Act"—everyone with a Fed wallet will receive $1,000-$2,000 in new, programmable GENIUS dollars that expire after 90 days. This prevents people from saving—they have to spend. This stimulates consumption and simultaneously devalues money.
And what about the 8 billion people in minutes?
This isn't something that will happen in 2035. Technically, it's already possible today. Politically, it will happen globally when the IMF/World Bank say: "We will no longer distribute development aid through corrupt governments, but directly as a dollar-based stablecoin wallet."
They are currently piloting this in Africa and South America. Timeframe for this: 2028-2030.
In short:
Until the end of 2026: Everything bullish, stablecoins are pumping, financing US debt, the dollar is becoming increasingly digital
2027-2028: Highest probability of a crash, interest rates explode briefly
Two weeks later: Bailout + first UBI/airdrop in the US
2028-2030: Global rollout as a "humanitarian" solution