Post by Mr. B

1RMRU9…75Rr Unverified · twetch

I'll bite. Mew, Rocket's MewTwo - both versions, and the SWSH Umbreon. I would predict the rest will be relatively muted desirability.

As an aside, I don't really like trading cards as a speculative investment despite having played trading cards my entire life and having a sizeable collection myself. - Trading cards are meant to be played. Cards can be reprinted infinitely on demand, they can be proxied with nearly perfect oricas produced by anyone with the appropriate printer. The entire valuation proposition is artificial scarcity, older cards are incidentally rare and hold a collectors value in that capacity.

As a player, I enjoy cards for their unique histories, original release scheduling, meta relevance, card art, but I don't assign a particularly high value to that sentiment. If I, an avid TCG player who's played MTG, Yu-Gi-Oh, Pokémon, and other games - doesn't really assign a high value to these pieces of history: who does? I'm arguably the exact demographic who would be interested in rare, high priced cards: I'm not.

As a kid, trading cards were a primary portfolio, I have had probably tens of thousands of dollars of fluid value exchange, conducting tons of in-person physical trades growing up. Cards that were worth $5 or $60 per and now see valuations in the hundreds while others have lost their value entirely. It's a convoluted pricing system.

These new collectors cards, designed for collections sake, will likely plateau in my view. There's historical precedent, original baseball cards packaged with bubblegum such as Babe Ruth began selling for tons of money in the 90's - so they massively inflated sports cards printing. Virtually none of those cards have seen that sort of pricing.

First run Trading cards from the late 90's / early 2000's are mildly interesting, but nothing arising to anything more than a, "hey, that's neat". Maybe 30 seconds of consideration, then it's over. How much value can one realistically assign to that? PSA grading is massively deceptive. They charge a serious premium for grading and I've heard allegations stemming back over 20 years that they would intentionally buy their own Graded cards off ebay from alternate accounts to give the impression that the Graded cards had values far exceeding what people would actually pay for them.

Somewhere along the line, it gained massive traction. Now, more people buy trading cards as a speculative investment, each pack released having some form of catch-22. Certain sets are more lucrative than others. Buying one set may be easy money while the next is a near-guaranteed net-loss. X-Rays and Pack weighing are incredibly toxic and ultimately one has to be cognizant that the base price for printing these cards is fixed, a cheap card costs the same as an expensive one to manufacture. None of them costing more than cents per printing.

Competitive pokemon tcg is extremely cheap. The most expensive meta-decks with the highest win-rates cost ~$40-$100 on average. Speculators drive sales, only looking for the most rare, alternate art, 1 in 400 pack or however the odds, type cards to attempt to arbitrage to absurd values. The supply for the cards people actually need to play the game are absolutely flooded, plummeting the cost to pennies. I would guess less than 20% of pokemon tcg products are purchased by someone with an intent to ever play the game.

In conclusion: My view is that PSA grading is highly deceptive. The economy works because of people's belief and willingness to participate. If that's a fun hobby or a lucrative investment for people, that's cool, let them have at it. However, as a player with a complex background in trading cards, the basic reality is that the supply is readily replenishable on demand and people should at least remain realistic about what it is that is actually going on in the ecosystem. Trading card sets could just as easily be sold as board games, with every card in the set, a full playset of 4 or 3 copies for each, at the price of a single booster box, and remain profitable - albeit substantially less so.

Finally: card games seriously suffer from power-creep, new cards are always stronger than the existing cards, and after awhile it becomes difficult to invent truly unique mechanics. Modern Yu-Gi-Oh is most frequently won on turn 1. Magic the Gathering often only lasts 3-4 turns. The actual player base of these games has dropped off due to design issues as the speculative market has increased. Most actual TCG players that I have known in my life can barely afford to play the game, they are the true fans. If they aren't buying - - - it implies the presumption by speculators of an existing fanbase that wants to collect propping up the market more than an actual fanbase seeking to chase rarity. IMO, people pushing speculative valuations are imagining a target demographic that doesn't exist at nearly the scale they think it does. Thanks for attending my TEDtalk.

239 880 sat
13fdCb…ux1P Unverified · twetch

Definitely agree on Mew.
I think the Magikarp is a masterpiece despite rarity and high pop especially if you see it up close and notice the semi hidden Gyarados.. Huge MewTwo guy but I just don’t see it on one of them (Ascended Heroes) in Mega. Pikachu is Pikachu, as basic as it is, it’s still aesthetic and it’s Pikachu + extreme rarity 1 in roughly 2000 packs type of pull rate (give or take).
Generally I understand what you’re saying, everything in life is what it is. Some factors that support and mis-support. Same thing could be said about almost anything in life.. aside from Gold, silver, land, and other certain things.. Not everything in life has to make sense sometimes, it’s all about enjoying what you do more than anything and if it benefits you down the road than cool, and if not than also cool.
Man what a TED talk lol

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