- **Proxies:** $T$ ← survey trust indices, transaction-without-escrow rates, unverified-purchase share. $D$ ← enforcement actions, fraud-complaint rates, chargeback ratios. $\delta$ ← regulator budgets/detection rates. $\gamma$ ← product-complexity indices.
- **Test 1 (cross-sectional):** regress equilibrium trust on $\delta/\gamma$ across markets; the model predicts $T^*$ is invariant to $\bar T$ — a sharp, falsifiable, counterintuitive claim.
- **Test 2 (time-series):** estimate cycle amplitude/damping pre- vs. post-digitization; predict reduced damping.
- **Test 3 (natural experiment):** crypto vs. regulated finance as high- vs. low-$\mathcal R_0$ regimes.